So How Do We/I Determine Ratings?

[George WK Newman]

Prime-Time

Prime time numbers will be the only numbers released on a daily basis, and I will try and publish them by early afternoon the following day after airing. The biggest problem for me will be publishing Friday, and Saturday data as I'm not on the computer much during the typical weekend.

Each prime time show will have primarily two or three people responsible for the ratings. They are me, and one or two anonymous players who are not part of the development of that show. Also, in effect everyone will help determine ratings in two ways. First, I will survey all players on every show to see what they like about it, what they don't like about it, and how they think it would do in the real world. I will analyze the info I get back, and kind of compare to that person's typical review. I will also keep in mind that person's demographics and use that info in determining the demos. The second way everyone effects ratings is of course by helping out; solid lead-in shows, promo, advertising, buzz. The more effort put into a show, the more result (generally) will come out.

Can I be more specific on this? I sure can....

[George WK Newman]

Prime Time (2)

The first step towards getting some sort of ratings base for a show is to determine how much people like the show when they watch it, and maybe even more important, how likely they are to watch it for the first time. This does not have to wait for its initial airing, as somewhere in the process of greenlighting a show some research, testing and survey work is done. This is detailed more in "creating a show".

Based on feedback given our marketing department will give it one of the following ratings;
Super Hit
Hit
Solid
Weak
Dismal

Advertising (Skip Canada) will provide a chart that shows a general range by prime time slot how he thinks a show of those ratings will score. It's up to the programmers to then work out a schedule to the maximum benefit of the network.

For instance, you may have a show with "hit" written on it, but its still not sure how many people will tune in. Because of the "newness" of the network and some less then desireable affiliate stations, even a "hit" show on our Sixth network may show expected ratings of 3-5 million viewers Thursday @ 9:00pm, and 1.5-3.0 million viewers Friday @ 8:00pm (as just two examples). Now obviously as the network grows, the show consistently delivers while not getting stale, and has "legs" those numbers should improve. The show's status may go up or down from "hit", but also the matrix of how the network is doing will change.

Anyway, this is your first piece of information; Superhit, hit, solid, weak, or dismal. Along with this though will be some other guidance and advice; what people like about the show and what they don't like. This rating also has a difficult time knowing what kind of marketing and advertising effort you will put behind it to generate buzz. So it pretty much assumes a typical, fairly low key, low budget, fledging network budget.

Okay, but how do we determine whether it is going to be a superhit, hit, solid, weak, or dismal show? well....

[George WK Newman]

Prime-Time (3)

When a show is ready to get feedback it must determine what method it will use. For more information see the show creation thread. Generally, the more money spent the better the feedback. It is "free" to just screen the pilot for executives, small groups of insiders, etc. You have to be careful though as you want to maintain some industry secrecy as you don't want the public perception based on early negative leaked reports before you have time to fix the show.
Feedback can be received anytime during the show's development through this message board, or more formally by having marketing do research for a price.

But how do we do this research?
Well basically I will send a pm to all members to get their feedback on a series of questions about the show. All answers will be anonymous.

So that's it? It's basically a popularity contest amongst a few people on this site? Is his High School all over again?
Well no....there is a "plethora" of things that go into the ratings, for transparency and fairness...such as...

[George WK Newman]

Prime-Time (4)

The Hook. The Hook refers to how the bare bones concept plays with people, and the kind of buzz it will likely get. Desperate Housewives is an example of a show that generated a lot of buzz off the concept, while Survivor is an example of a show that did not, but still flourished by word of mouth. The ratings makers will consult themselves on the hook, watch the board for what people think, and may poll as well.
The hook may have a huge effect on how well a show does in its series premiere episode, and works well in conjunction with advertising.

Quality of write-ups and episodes. Quality of episodes & write-ups, is the next step and goes beyond the hook. Write-ups are done on two levels, first there is an episode summary which is restrained to a maximum # of characters (to be determined). However, there is also the ability to produce as detailed an episode write-up as required. In general, an honest effort to produce a well detailed episode guide will always produce somewhat, and should never be viewed as having a negative impact on a shows ratings.
The write-ups though are not an "advance" indicator of how a show will do, like the Hook, but rather will effect a show's ability to retain viewers, or add viewers by word of mouth or "legs" as they say. The premiere episode is the most important to have a good write-up as it sets the tone for the show and allows the ratings maker to really get a feel for the product's substance.
The Hook is the sizzle, but the episode guides are the steak.
The episode guides and writing do not have a big effect on the first night's rating but has a HUGE effect on retention and gains.

Cast & Special Guests
A great cast is never a guarantee of success if people don't buy the hook, but it can definetly enhance the hook. Still, as Lucille Ball's return to TV showed, as well as Cosby's Ghost Dad, its no guarantee of retention.
A show will not be penalized for using an unknown cast, sometimes thats better then using leads which are seen as perennial support characters which makes the new show look like a low budget proposition.
Special guests, especially in sweeps weeks, is a great way to get a pop in the ratings, even if it is just a small one. If you can get a .4 pop for instance from a special guest, there is a good chance you can retain half of that going forward.
But remember special guests are only effective if used in tandem with some advertisement. Otherwise you will not attract new viewers.
The cast can have a major effect in drawing viewers to the first episode; either because they are known and liked by the audience, or they are fresh new faces creating a buzz in TV land.

Production Value
There is a world of difference between a production like Lost and one like Xena: Princess Warrior. There are only two ways to increase the professionalism of your production. The biggest and most expensive way is simply to pay for it. The bigger your license fee and the studio costs for production the better it will generally look on screen. So when the studio asks for $1.2 million per episode and you lowball them to $0.9 million, this may be penny wise, pound foolish, as the production values may take a big hit. The second way, less effective but cheaper, is simply to maintain your professionalism. Consistent production schedules, ontime delivery, etc shows that you run a tight ship that will make the most of the budget money available for production.

Advertisment
You will have the opportunity to spend money on advertisement, both internally by buying promo spots on our other shows at a discounted rate, or buying external advertisements.
Guidelines on advertisement costs will be given and the Director of programming will have to hash it out with the showrunners and the CEO to set budgets for each show.
Advertisement budgets are adjusted a few times a year, basically after every sweeps period, but can also be done more often if desired.
It is likely the networks will be given a maximum advertising allowance for all their shows combined by the network's Chairman of the Board.
Obviously advertising will have a large effect on ratings. There is a sweet spot in advertising between not having enough repetitions to create a mindset to view your show, and having too many advertisements where the extra are just wasted money. It's up to you to find that sweet spot.
The first season premieres will rely more heavily on a limited external advertising budget because the network will not even exist to promo its own shows yet.
Advertising is also important to keep the show in the public's mind as the season progresses and to advertise each episode as special.

Demographics, fit with the network
Overall a network may want to change its focus, or expand its target groups and may bring certain shows into the line-up to help achieve that.
However, in general a new show may suffer because of that, it may shoulder the short-term pain for longer term gains.
For instance Fox shows like Simpsons, Married with Children, and X-Files paved the way for other shows even like "24". But if Fox had produced a show like West Wing, it probably would have done even poorer then it did at NBC.

Random Chance.
Yes, some part of a show's success or failure will be completely, mindboggoling, frustratingly based on randomness.
A random number generator will be run for all NEW shows. Scores in the middle will indicate that it won't really effect ratings that much, but scores at the top or bottom may have a decent sized effect on ratings.
For instance a show which otherwise may have scored a 12.0 rating on opening night may go down as far as say 9.0 due to the twist of fate, or it could have the opposite effect.

Key, Hot words
I will pre-determine a set of random hot topics and words for the season, based on trends as well as some random ones. For example, pirates might be hot, or quiz shows, but there might be some out of the blue too like "fish" or "Oregon". These will be kept secret but may be released for fun after the season.

Originality
Originality is a double edged sword, it is a riskier concept. It opens the ceiling to higher ratings but may also miss the mark. You can have a Desperate Housewives or you can have a Cop Rock. Measuring originality goes beyond just the concept though, and can be expressed through marketing, casting, show length, production quirks, script writing, etc.
Overall though I would say originality is a good thing, should help with ratings, but you also have to learn to pick your spots, and on occassion you are going to have a project that you love but it bombs.

Brand name
In many ways this is the opposite of originality. It can be a spin-off of a current show, adaptation of a movie or foreign show, etc. You could produce a show based on the Bourne saga or character, or perhaps an animated version of the Star Wars world.
Since you will be paying a premium for this license fee you will not be punished in the ratings, in fact there is an excellent chance your ratings will be half decent at worst. However, your top end ceiling numbers may suffer, simply because in this game we do prefer originality.
Also, you tie yourself to a license and royalties that may go up when it is time to renew, and may take a portion of syndication and DVD income, draining a portion of your profits.
Nothing wrong with turning a brand into a TV show, but you should not count on this being your bread and butter.

Promos
Basically this is a visual representation of your "hook". Some people love promos, and that's fine, but at the end of the day they may attract viewers, but a quality product is what will keep them.
The network should have at least one person able to produce promos for their shows on staff and can post them on the message board to create buzz.

Lead Ins
A shows ratings are effected somewhat by the lead-in show, the show on the same network immediately before it.
This is especially true for half hour shows that run against hour long shows.
Again this is amplified for shows that have a high advertisment budget as presumably many spots will be shown on the preceeding show.
Another important thing to keep in mind is the compatibility of the lead-in show with the next show. While The Office and My Name is Earl seem to co-exist well, it might not work so well to have COPS being a lead-in for Golden Girls.

*********************

So some of these factors like the hook, originality, the cast, the writing of the first episode will be the basis of the survey to members, and those results will be used. However, the two ratings members will also have a large say in the matter. Throw all those factors together and we will get a rating of a "super hit, hit, solid, weak, or abismal". How accurate that rating turns out to be is questionable as other things including "hot topics", "advertisement", "lead in", and "random chance" have yet to be added.

[George WK Newman]

Prime-Time (5)

Okay, so armed with a rating "super hit, hit,..." and the matrix a decision is made where to put the show.

Then the ratings makers add in the other factors that were not part of the survey "lead in", "advertisment", etc.

Two additional factors are also then looked at.

1) Cluster or Contrarion. This is how what the competition shows on their network will effect your ratings. For instance, Friday night can often be a graveyard, so what happens if you put on a very serious political newshow? Will being different help ratings or will it tank because no one wants to watch that Friday night. Do you use the last season of ER as an opportunity to launch your own medical drama against it, hoping to get people channel surfing during commercials to buy in? In general, if you are a powerhouse you can throw your weight around putting a big budget highly anticipated show into a good time slot to try and bully the other shows. However, if you are a fledging network like ours you more likely should go to the contration route...but to what point?

2) What happened that night? The best laid plans of mice and men. Power outages across the eastern seaboard, a breaking news story, or ABC's 7th game of the NBA finals going into overtime against your breakthrough drama. All this stuff counts.

And from all this stuff we get your premiere night ratings for you to analyze and anguish over.

[George WK Newman]

But where do you go from there?

Prime-Time (6)

After your initial rating, the level of change and uncertainty is still greatest early on, diminishing as the season progresses and loyalties set in.

On future episodes the same measures as above are considered but some are now more important then they were before.

The first thing is the ratings makers have to look at the time slot. Did the show stay in the same time slot? What about the competition, did it change, or is it in repeats? Did the network change the lead-in, and what happened to the lead-in's ratings.

Also note, that the lead in for the 8:00pm first slot is often the news, so a strong news division with strong affiliates will give our 8:00pm slot a stronger lead-in.

Now, all other things being the same, the factors that become more important then before are;
-Quality of write-ups and episodes (maybe more so the previous episode then the current one)
-the ability to pop the ratings with advertising and special guests

Many of the other factors are already written in stone, such as the hook, and demographics. However, a show can often try and appeal to a new audience by switching their emphasis in advertising from say a serious action show, to advertising the ligther comedic moments of the program. Changes in the feel of the episodes can also work for or against the program's ratings.

Again, what happens on that particular night; news, weather, etc can also impact all television's ratings for the night.